Investment and transition risks in green economy viola-funding November 4, 2023

Investment and transition risks in green economy

Green economy transition
Green economy transition: a problem in the oil and gas sector

Many companies and governments across the continent are unable to rely on new policies and environmental assets while continuing to use fossil fuels as a source of energy for their businesses. The global green economy transition is beginning to slowly recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, and very limited reserves of fossil fuels are driving the price up.

In the early months of 2021, oil giants including BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Exxon Mobil and Total sold billions of dollars in assets to raise additional capital during the protracted coronavirus crisis and cut emissions, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Oil and coal giants use the proceeds from the sale of assets to cover accumulated debt and develop projects to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

This opens up unexpected investment opportunities for outsiders.

Small players in the oil, gas and coal sectors are actively buying unwanted projects. They are betting that the energy transformation will take years, and the world will rely on oil and coal for a long time to come, especially in developing countries.

At the same time, they are betting on future price increases driven by market fears that the collapse of the industry giants will lead to supply shortages.

One of the areas of great investment interest is the North Sea. In recent months, small players have been buying properties here that are being sold to large companies.

Despite the fact that it is the region with the highest oil prices in the world. High prices did not stop Britain’s NEO Energy from acquiring more than $ 1 billion of Exxon Mobil’s assets in the region.

Many Asian countries say they are ready to move towards zero carbon emissions, but demand for fossil fuels remains strong in the region.

The same is true in Africa.

20% of market capitalization since 2012 by oil companies

Some companies as Anglo American and Rio Tinto are getting rid of gloomy investment projects that jetton to the green economy transition.

On the other hand, investments in renewable energy sources (RES) and carbon-free technologies have been much more successful. Over the same period, Angel investors spent $ 56 billion on shares in companies in this sector. The value of this investment portfolio today is over $ 77 billion.

Climate risk cannot be ignored and green businesses are changing their minds.

Analysts estimate that this will require businesses to invest $ 3 to $ 5 trillion a year in the sector.

Green economy transition: problems in oil continents

The  green economy transition could be a nightmare for oil-producing countries, according to a report by British consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft.

As positive as the green transition may seem in an environmental context, some hydrocarbon exporting countries risk a number of major challenges in the coming decades if they do not diversify their economies.

According to expert analysis, Algeria, Nigeria and Iraq are now among the most prone to political instability.

In Angola, Gabon and Kazakhstan, crisis are imminent if they do not prepare the economy for a global phase-out of fossil fuels.

Whether the oil countries are OPEC members or not, production has doubled in recent years in an effort to fill the budget deficit.

Many countries, including Saudi Arabia, have continued to reduce their foreign exchange reserves since 2014.

Most countries that rely heavily on oil production do not have the potential for transformation. They lack the necessary legal and economic institutions, infrastructure and human capital. But even if these institutions exist, an unfavorable political environment and corruption impede reform.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is also successfully trying to replace oil. But on the whole, diversification of oil exports turns out to be a difficult task not only from an economic, but also from a political point of view for most exporters.

Experts believe that against the background of the growth of large investment projects in the field of renewable energy sources, the survival of the oil states depends on the ability to diversify the economy and political stability.

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